Thursday, 30 July 2009

swine flu

With the emergence of swine flu, many countries have implemented measures to contain it. Comparisons of swine flu to the Spanish flu of 1918 which killed over 50 million people seem to suggest these measures are prudent. But how effective are these measures? Is swine flu in reality virulent enough to warrant such extreme measures? I will be listing some of the measures as well as their effectiveness.
When the outbreak was first recognised, Mexican authorities closed schools, libraries, museums, concerts and any public gathering place in certain states to try to contain the spread. The government also gave out millions of masks. These measures probably came too late to prevent the virus from spreading to other countries. The virus also spreads so rapidly that these measures probably did not help very much. In any case, given the large economic losses suffered due to this, such measures were probably unsustainable.
At the start of the outbreak, China suspended flights to Mexico. Hong Kong also quarantined a hotel where an infected person had stayed. This forced all guests and staff to remain inside for seven days. Hong Kong also ordered schools to suspend classes for a period of time. The quarantine was probably more effective in China as there was less time for the virus to spread. This approach of course can strain relations with Mexico. Clearly Mexicans would not be pleased that they are being denied a source of tourism, especially since they had already taken swift measures to try and contain the outbreak.
Several countries have slaughtered pigs or banned pork imports to ensure they do not pass on the disease to humans. I feel this is unjustified since while the virus may have originated from pigs (hence leading to the name swine flu), it is now a strain that is only human-human transmittable. This has led to in my opinion unnecessary trouble with pig owners who have their animals confiscated and dispute over the compensation. It also affects pork suppliers since they have reduced business. This can also lead to trade disputes.
In general, most countries have implemented health checks at entry points to screen travelers coming from swine flu affected countries. Countries have also issued travel advisories warning against travel to swine flu affected countries. Most countries also have rooms set aside in hospitals for quarantine. I feel these are more appropriate since they will not cause undue trouble to visitors. These measures may not be full proof since people can be infected without showing symptoms.
In my opinion, once it has become clear that the swine flu is quite mild and that it spreads very fast, the measures Singapore has taken are less draconian. Instead of having to go to hospitals to be diagnosed, you can just go to a polyclinic. Also, despite having over a thousand cases, there are no nationwide school closures. Compare this to the SARS outbreak where schools were closed and all cases were only treated at one hospital.
To sum up, I feel most of the measures to prevent swine flu are ineffective since it spreads so quickly. The mild nature of the flu also seems not to warrant very drastic measures.

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